October 2, 2011
Watch out, England: Aussie RWC prediction
Today’s Sunday Star-Times has a story on page 5 suggesting that England should brace themselves for grand-final defeat.
An Aussie-based New Zealand statistics expert, Stefan Yelas, research director at Beaton Research & Consulting, is backing the All Blacks to beat Argentina and the Springboks on their road to the world cup final, where, he says, they will hammer England by 23 points.
Read the full story here …
Atakohu Middleton is an Auckland journalist with a keen interest in the way the media uses/abuses data. She happens to be married to a statistician. See all posts by Atakohu Middleton »
Stefan’s blog is http://www.beatonglobal.com/blog/author/stefan/
13 years ago
Thanks, Tony :-)
13 years ago
Stefan has updated his figures and has Wales as the second most likely team to win. I have updated the figures from my simpler model at http://ddnum.com/articles/rwc.php and have Wales at only sixth most likely. The TAB is offering 1 to 17 for Wales.
I also have figures for the likely finalists. My figures agree with Stefan’s in that a New Zealand – England final is most likely. New Zealand – Wales is second most likely. It would be good to see Wales make the final for the first time.
13 years ago
Thanks for keeping us all in the loop!
13 years ago