Posts from April 2011 (3)

This is a new TED talk on risk, it’s got some great stuff in it, including:

Common biases in risk perception:

1. Exaggerate spectacular and rare risks and downplay common risks (flying vs driving)
2. The unknown is perceived to be riskier than the familiar (kidnapping of children by strangers vs family members)
3. Personified risks are seen to be greater than anonymous risks (Bin Laden is scarier because he has a name)
4. Underestimating risks in situations people control, overestimating risks in situations people don’t control (Skydiving or smoking vs terrorism)

He also discusses the availability heuristic with examples:

“Newspapers repeat again and again rare risks. If it’s in the news, don’t worry about it because by definition news is something that almost never happens. When something is so common it’s no longer news: car crashes, domestic violence, those are the risks you worry about.”

And talks about how we respond to stories more than data.

David Spiegelhalter: Winton Professor of the Public Perception of Risk at Cambridge University was interviewed by Kathryn Ryan on Nine to Noon on Tuesday:

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/20110412

You can follow the link or download the podcast for your iPod or mp3 player.

“So, uh, we did the green study again and got no link. It was probably a– RESEARCH CONFLICTED ON GREEN JELLY BEAN/ACNE LINK; MORE STUDY RECOMMENDED!”