November 11, 2026

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.46 12.37 -1.90
Montpellier 7.75 6.36 1.40
Section Paloise 5.53 4.18 1.30
Bordeaux Begles 4.89 3.70 1.20
Stade Francais 4.08 5.68 -1.60
Stade Rochelais 3.79 4.97 -1.20
Clermont 2.63 4.21 -1.60
Racing 92 1.79 3.59 -1.80
Toulon 1.01 -0.81 1.80
Lyon 0.77 -0.94 1.70
Bayonne -0.90 -2.02 1.10
Castres Olympique -2.07 -0.29 -1.80
USA Perpignan -5.42 -5.39 -0.00
Vannes -8.70 -10.00 1.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 45 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Nov 08 28 – 30 3.30 FALSE
2 Montpellier vs. Lyon Nov 08 21 – 19 14.40 TRUE
3 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Nov 08 63 – 26 16.10 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Nov 08 22 – 18 12.20 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Nov 08 28 – 18 14.90 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Nov 08 43 – 23 2.20 TRUE
7 Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 08 23 – 14 -8.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Castres Olympique Nov 29 Bayonne 7.70
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier Nov 29 Bordeaux Begles 3.60
3 Lyon vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 29 Stade Toulousain -3.20
4 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Nov 29 Racing 92 2.80
5 Stade Francais vs. Vannes Nov 29 Stade Francais 19.30
6 Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan Nov 29 Stade Rochelais 15.70
7 Clermont vs. Toulon Nov 30 Clermont 8.10

 

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NFL Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Jaguars 8.63 4.17 4.50
Bills 8.46 4.81 3.70
Seahawks 7.04 12.03 -5.00
Bears 5.23 1.18 4.10
49ers 5.21 0.63 4.60
Rams 5.06 6.16 -1.10
Broncos 4.18 4.07 0.10
Bengals 3.83 0.39 3.40
Lions 3.79 5.20 -1.40
Texans 3.41 5.51 -2.10
Patriots 3.22 8.11 -4.90
Packers 3.17 1.72 1.50
Chiefs 3.08 -1.34 4.40
Steelers 2.71 -0.43 3.10
Vikings 1.87 2.79 -0.90
Buccaneers 0.92 -3.95 4.90
Giants -1.69 -2.38 0.70
Commanders -2.42 -4.65 2.20
Cowboys -2.98 -3.42 0.40
Falcons -3.46 -1.39 -2.10
Saints -3.54 -3.38 -0.20
Panthers -3.88 -4.66 0.80
Ravens -3.95 2.53 -6.50
Browns -4.39 -2.50 -1.90
Raiders -4.40 -5.72 1.30
Dolphins -5.07 -3.99 -1.10
Colts -5.08 -0.74 -4.30
Chargers -5.34 1.16 -6.50
Eagles -6.06 0.73 -6.80
Cardinals -6.51 -7.49 1.00
Titans -7.27 -8.81 1.50
Jets -7.28 -9.84 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ravens vs. Jaguars Nov 06 10 – 33 -10.10 TRUE
2 Falcons vs. Bengals Nov 09 17 – 34 -5.00 TRUE
3 Panthers vs. Broncos Nov 09 21 – 26 -9.20 TRUE
4 Colts vs. Cowboys Nov 09 23 – 27 -1.40 TRUE
5 Chiefs vs. Jets Nov 09 35 – 12 7.50 TRUE
6 Dolphins vs. Lions Nov 09 9 – 19 -8.40 TRUE
7 Saints vs. Browns Nov 09 23 – 22 0.80 TRUE
8 Eagles vs. Giants Nov 09 11 – 19 -3.00 TRUE
9 Commanders vs. Rams Nov 09 13 – 20 -7.70 TRUE
10 Chargers vs. Texans Nov 09 22 – 44 -5.80 TRUE
11 49ers vs. Raiders Nov 09 38 – 17 7.00 TRUE
12 Patriots vs. Packers Nov 09 27 – 45 3.90 FALSE
13 Seahawks vs. Cardinals Nov 09 17 – 3 13.40 TRUE
14 Bears vs. Buccaneers Nov 09 27 – 24 4.80 TRUE
15 Vikings vs. Bills Nov 10 6 – 23 -4.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Giants vs. Commanders Nov 13 Giants 0.70
2 Lions vs. Patriots Nov 16 Lions 0.60
3 Falcons vs. Chiefs Nov 16 Chiefs -6.50
4 Browns vs. Texans Nov 16 Texans -7.80
5 Packers vs. Vikings Nov 16 Packers 1.30
6 Colts vs. Dolphins Nov 16 Dolphins -0.00
7 Saints vs. Panthers Nov 16 Saints 0.30
8 Jets vs. Bills Nov 16 Bills -15.70
9 Titans vs. Jaguars Nov 16 Jaguars -15.90
10 Cardinals vs. Rams Nov 16 Rams -11.60
11 Raiders vs. Seahawks Nov 16 Seahawks -11.40
12 Cowboys vs. 49ers Nov 16 49ers -8.20
13 Bengals vs. Steelers Nov 16 Bengals 1.10
14 Ravens vs. Chargers Nov 17 Ravens 1.40

 

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November 3, 2026

NFL Predictions for Week 9

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Team Ratings for Week 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Jaguars 7.40 4.17 3.20
Bills 7.23 4.81 2.40
Seahawks 6.95 12.03 -5.10
Bears 5.49 1.18 4.30
Patriots 5.15 8.11 -3.00
Rams 5.15 6.16 -1.00
Broncos 4.78 4.07 0.70
49ers 3.89 0.63 3.30
Lions 3.57 5.20 -1.60
Vikings 3.10 2.79 0.30
Steelers 2.71 -0.43 3.10
Bengals 2.67 0.39 2.30
Texans 1.91 5.51 -3.60
Chiefs 1.64 -1.34 3.00
Packers 1.24 1.72 -0.50
Buccaneers 0.66 -3.95 4.60
Falcons -2.30 -1.39 -0.90
Giants -2.40 -2.38 -0.00
Commanders -2.51 -4.65 2.10
Ravens -2.72 2.53 -5.20
Raiders -3.08 -5.72 2.60
Cowboys -3.35 -3.42 0.10
Saints -3.57 -3.38 -0.20
Chargers -3.85 1.16 -5.00
Browns -4.36 -2.50 -1.90
Panthers -4.47 -4.66 0.20
Colts -4.70 -0.74 -4.00
Dolphins -4.84 -3.99 -0.90
Eagles -5.36 0.73 -6.10
Jets -5.84 -9.84 4.00
Cardinals -6.42 -7.49 1.10
Titans -7.27 -8.81 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 121 matches played, 73 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Packers vs. Panthers Oct 30 27 – 19 4.80 TRUE
2 Bills vs. Ravens Nov 02 36 – 10 6.40 TRUE
3 Bengals vs. Titans Nov 02 43 – 36 11.10 TRUE
4 Cowboys vs. Cardinals Nov 02 30 – 33 5.40 FALSE
5 Lions vs. Vikings Nov 02 19 – 15 -0.90 FALSE
6 Jaguars vs. Colts Nov 02 42 – 7 7.40 TRUE
7 Jets vs. Raiders Nov 02 33 – 38 -1.90 TRUE
8 Steelers vs. Browns Nov 02 27 – 6 3.90 TRUE
9 Buccaneers vs. Falcons Nov 02 16 – 0 0.00 TRUE
10 Rams vs. Chargers Nov 02 24 – 9 6.70 TRUE
11 Broncos vs. Chiefs Nov 02 28 – 24 2.80 TRUE
12 Dolphins vs. Patriots Nov 02 19 – 24 -11.90 TRUE
13 Commanders vs. Eagles Nov 02 27 – 10 -0.30 FALSE
14 Seahawks vs. Bears Nov 03 17 – 34 5.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 9

Here are the predictions for Week 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ravens vs. Jaguars Nov 06 Jaguars -10.10
2 Falcons vs. Bengals Nov 09 Bengals -5.00
3 Panthers vs. Broncos Nov 09 Broncos -9.20
4 Colts vs. Cowboys Nov 09 Cowboys -1.40
5 Chiefs vs. Jets Nov 09 Chiefs 7.50
6 Dolphins vs. Lions Nov 09 Lions -8.40
7 Saints vs. Browns Nov 09 Saints 0.80
8 Eagles vs. Giants Nov 09 Giants -3.00
9 Commanders vs. Rams Nov 09 Rams -7.70
10 Chargers vs. Texans Nov 09 Texans -5.80
11 49ers vs. Raiders Nov 09 49ers 7.00
12 Patriots vs. Packers Nov 09 Patriots 3.90
13 Seahawks vs. Cardinals Nov 09 Seahawks 13.40
14 Bears vs. Buccaneers Nov 09 Bears 4.80
15 Vikings vs. Bills Nov 10 Bills -4.10

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.90 12.13 -0.20
Bulls 10.92 10.00 0.90
Stormers 7.10 6.49 0.60
Glasgow 6.40 6.47 -0.10
Sharks 4.89 2.16 2.70
Munster 1.52 1.25 0.30
Lions 0.82 1.48 -0.70
Edinburgh 0.01 -2.55 2.60
Ulster -0.08 -0.32 0.20
Connacht -0.78 2.62 -3.40
Cardiff Rugby -1.98 -1.63 -0.40
Ospreys -4.00 -3.35 -0.60
Benetton -5.22 -6.67 1.50
Scarlets -5.99 -3.47 -2.50
Dragons -9.44 -10.04 0.60
Zebre -16.07 -14.56 -1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 31 5 – 50 -7.10 TRUE
2 Glasgow vs. Lions Oct 31 29 – 20 11.70 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Ulster Nov 01 33 – 7 11.10 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Nov 01 31 – 12 -1.70 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Scarlets Nov 01 54 – 26 20.70 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Zebre Nov 01 35 – 14 10.90 TRUE
7 Munster vs. Sharks Nov 01 3 – 15 3.80 FALSE
8 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 01 0 – 26 3.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Dragons Dec 05 Edinburgh 14.90
2 Ospreys vs. Leinster Dec 05 Leinster -10.40
3 Lions vs. Bulls Dec 06 Bulls -7.60
4 Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster Dec 06 Cardiff Rugby 3.60
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Dec 06 Sharks 0.30
6 Scarlets vs. Connacht Dec 06 Scarlets 0.30
7 Glasgow vs. Benetton Dec 06 Glasgow 17.10
8 Zebre vs. Munster Dec 06 Munster -12.10

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 10.76 12.37 -1.60
Montpellier 8.20 6.36 1.80
Bordeaux Begles 5.47 3.70 1.80
Section Paloise 4.84 4.18 0.70
Stade Francais 4.68 5.68 -1.00
Stade Rochelais 4.28 4.97 -0.70
Clermont 2.34 4.21 -1.90
Racing 92 1.47 3.59 -2.10
Toulon 0.41 -0.81 1.20
Lyon 0.32 -0.94 1.30
Bayonne -1.40 -2.02 0.60
Castres Olympique -1.75 -0.29 -1.50
USA Perpignan -4.73 -5.39 0.70
Vannes -9.29 -10.00 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 40 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Nov 01 19 – 14 14.10 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Nov 01 37 – 30 7.40 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Vannes Nov 01 48 – 25 15.20 TRUE
4 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Nov 01 69 – 10 13.90 TRUE
5 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 01 43 – 24 6.00 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Nov 01 24 – 25 1.70 FALSE
7 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 02 34 – 14 -0.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Castres Olympique vs. Racing 92 Nov 08 Castres Olympique 3.30
2 Montpellier vs. Lyon Nov 08 Montpellier 14.40
3 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Nov 08 Section Paloise 16.10
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne Nov 08 Stade Rochelais 12.20
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont Nov 08 Stade Toulousain 14.90
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Nov 08 Toulon 2.20
7 Vannes vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 08 Bordeaux Begles -8.30

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 8.74 9.92 -1.20
Northampton Saints 7.25 8.34 -1.10
Bath 6.26 9.66 -3.40
Saracens 4.45 8.04 -3.60
Gloucester 3.31 -3.46 6.80
Exeter Chiefs 1.46 7.58 -6.10
Bristol 1.25 -0.11 1.40
Harlequins -3.17 -3.58 0.40
Sale Sharks -3.44 -2.31 -1.10
Newcastle Red Bulls -17.40 -25.37 8.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 31 16 – 22 0.90 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Nov 01 28 – 31 14.20 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Nov 01 39 – 31 32.40 TRUE
4 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Nov 01 36 – 28 18.30 TRUE
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Nov 01 28 – 14 10.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Bristol Dec 05 Bath 12.00
2 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Dec 06 Gloucester 27.70
3 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Dec 06 Leicester Tigers -4.90
4 Saracens vs. Northampton Saints Dec 06 Saracens 4.20
5 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Dec 07 Sale Sharks 2.10

 

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October 27, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.37 12.13 -1.80
Bulls 10.04 10.00 0.00
Glasgow 6.73 6.47 0.30
Stormers 6.30 6.49 -0.20
Sharks 4.06 2.16 1.90
Munster 2.35 1.25 1.10
Edinburgh 1.01 -2.55 3.60
Connacht 0.75 2.62 -1.90
Ulster 0.72 -0.32 1.00
Lions 0.49 1.48 -1.00
Ospreys -2.74 -3.35 0.60
Cardiff Rugby -3.24 -1.63 -1.60
Scarlets -5.11 -3.47 -1.60
Benetton -6.22 -6.67 0.50
Dragons -10.04 -10.04 -0.00
Zebre -15.47 -14.56 -0.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 32 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Sharks Oct 24 21 – 36 -0.20 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Zebre Oct 24 48 – 27 21.90 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 24 31 – 10 4.30 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Ulster Oct 25 34 – 26 17.00 TRUE
5 Benetton vs. Glasgow Oct 25 20 – 24 -8.50 TRUE
6 Stormers vs. Scarlets Oct 25 52 – 40 18.50 TRUE
7 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 25 24 – 18 12.00 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Dragons Oct 25 31 – 14 7.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Connacht vs. Leinster Oct 31 Leinster -7.10
2 Glasgow vs. Lions Oct 31 Glasgow 11.70
3 Stormers vs. Ulster Nov 01 Stormers 11.10
4 Benetton vs. Edinburgh Nov 01 Edinburgh -1.70
5 Bulls vs. Scarlets Nov 01 Bulls 20.70
6 Dragons vs. Zebre Nov 01 Dragons 10.90
7 Munster vs. Sharks Nov 01 Munster 3.80
8 Ospreys vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 01 Ospreys 3.00

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.44 12.37 -0.90
Montpellier 6.94 6.36 0.60
Bordeaux Begles 5.82 3.70 2.10
Stade Rochelais 4.75 4.97 -0.20
Stade Francais 4.21 5.68 -1.50
Section Paloise 4.17 4.18 -0.00
Clermont 2.36 4.21 -1.90
Racing 92 1.44 3.59 -2.10
Toulon 0.25 -0.81 1.10
Lyon -0.15 -0.94 0.80
Castres Olympique -0.49 -0.29 -0.20
Bayonne -1.75 -2.02 0.30
USA Perpignan -4.57 -5.39 0.80
Vannes -8.82 -10.00 1.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 35 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Oct 25 27 – 31 5.60 FALSE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Oct 25 16 – 8 1.00 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Oct 25 17 – 20 1.60 FALSE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 25 19 – 25 6.30 FALSE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan Oct 25 38 – 33 23.80 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Oct 25 41 – 20 1.30 TRUE
7 Vannes vs. Clermont Oct 25 27 – 26 -5.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Nov 01 Bordeaux Begles 14.10
2 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Nov 01 Clermont 7.40
3 Lyon vs. Vannes Nov 01 Lyon 15.20
4 Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique Nov 01 Montpellier 13.90
5 Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 01 Stade Francais 6.00
6 USA Perpignan vs. Toulon Nov 01 USA Perpignan 1.70
7 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 02 Stade Toulousain -0.80

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leicester Tigers 8.05 9.92 -1.90
Bath 7.08 9.66 -2.60
Northampton Saints 6.87 8.34 -1.50
Saracens 6.22 8.04 -1.80
Gloucester 3.69 -3.46 7.20
Exeter Chiefs 2.76 7.58 -4.80
Bristol 1.94 -0.11 2.10
Sale Sharks -4.26 -2.31 -2.00
Harlequins -4.46 -3.58 -0.90
Newcastle Red Bulls -19.17 -25.37 6.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 14 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Gloucester vs. Bath Oct 24 23 – 5 1.10 TRUE
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks Oct 24 17 – 3 -11.60 FALSE
3 Leicester Tigers vs. Northampton Saints Oct 25 28 – 7 5.90 TRUE
4 Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 25 20 – 7 4.90 TRUE
5 Harlequins vs. Saracens Oct 26 33 – 15 -7.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 31 Bristol 0.90
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Harlequins Nov 01 Exeter Chiefs 14.20
3 Saracens vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Nov 01 Saracens 32.40
4 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Nov 01 Bath 18.30
5 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Nov 01 Northampton Saints 10.20

 

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NFL Predictions for Week 8

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Team Ratings for Week 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Seahawks 8.91 12.03 -3.10
Patriots 6.12 8.11 -2.00
Bills 5.47 4.81 0.70
Jaguars 5.05 4.17 0.90
Broncos 4.61 4.07 0.50
Rams 3.98 6.16 -2.20
49ers 3.89 0.63 3.30
Vikings 3.79 2.79 1.00
Bears 3.52 1.18 2.30
Bengals 3.25 0.39 2.90
Lions 2.88 5.20 -2.30
Texans 1.91 5.51 -3.60
Chiefs 1.81 -1.34 3.20
Steelers 1.15 -0.43 1.60
Packers 0.80 1.72 -0.90
Buccaneers -0.82 -3.95 3.10
Falcons -0.82 -1.39 0.60
Ravens -0.97 2.53 -3.50
Cowboys -2.17 -3.42 1.30
Colts -2.36 -0.74 -1.60
Giants -2.40 -2.38 -0.00
Chargers -2.68 1.16 -3.80
Browns -2.80 -2.50 -0.30
Raiders -3.51 -5.72 2.20
Saints -3.57 -3.38 -0.20
Eagles -3.78 0.73 -4.50
Panthers -4.02 -4.66 0.60
Commanders -4.09 -4.65 0.60
Jets -5.41 -9.84 4.40
Dolphins -5.81 -3.99 -1.80
Cardinals -7.61 -7.49 -0.10
Titans -7.85 -8.81 1.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 107 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bears vs. Patriots Oct 23 30 – 24 -5.90 FALSE
2 Saints vs. Steelers Oct 26 10 – 16 -4.20 TRUE
3 Falcons vs. 49ers Oct 26 29 – 20 -7.80 FALSE
4 Ravens vs. Bengals Oct 26 13 – 35 -0.40 TRUE
5 Panthers vs. Buccaneers Oct 26 13 – 43 2.10 FALSE
6 Texans vs. Giants Oct 26 21 – 27 6.70 FALSE
7 Vikings vs. Colts Oct 26 16 – 10 6.20 TRUE
8 Jets vs. Dolphins Oct 26 25 – 28 1.70 FALSE
9 Titans vs. Browns Oct 26 24 – 27 -5.80 TRUE
10 Cardinals vs. Broncos Oct 26 16 – 30 -11.50 TRUE
11 Lions vs. Packers Oct 26 20 – 17 1.70 TRUE
12 Raiders vs. Rams Oct 26 21 – 35 -5.00 TRUE
13 Seahawks vs. Chiefs Oct 26 20 – 3 4.80 TRUE
14 Eagles vs. Cowboys Oct 27 21 – 38 1.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 8

Here are the predictions for Week 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Packers vs. Panthers Oct 30 Packers 4.80
2 Bills vs. Ravens Nov 02 Bills 6.40
3 Bengals vs. Titans Nov 02 Bengals 11.10
4 Cowboys vs. Cardinals Nov 02 Cowboys 5.40
5 Lions vs. Vikings Nov 02 Vikings -0.90
6 Jaguars vs. Colts Nov 02 Jaguars 7.40
7 Jets vs. Raiders Nov 02 Raiders -1.90
8 Steelers vs. Browns Nov 02 Steelers 3.90
9 Buccaneers vs. Falcons Nov 02 Buccaneers 0.00
10 Rams vs. Chargers Nov 02 Rams 6.70
11 Broncos vs. Chiefs Nov 02 Broncos 2.80
12 Dolphins vs. Patriots Nov 02 Patriots -11.90
13 Commanders vs. Eagles Nov 02 Eagles -0.30
14 Seahawks vs. Bears Nov 03 Seahawks 5.40

 

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