June 2, 2026

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 18

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Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 11.40 10.30 1.10
Leicester Tigers 10.19 5.55 4.60
Saracens 9.32 5.03 4.30
Northampton Saints 8.04 -1.47 9.50
Exeter Chiefs 5.14 -4.58 9.70
Bristol 1.26 3.66 -2.40
Sale Sharks -3.49 6.70 -10.20
Gloucester -3.60 4.13 -7.70
Harlequins -4.74 -3.02 -1.70
Newcastle Red Bulls -25.66 -18.45 -7.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 85 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Bath May 30 21 – 19 -4.40 FALSE
2 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Sale Sharks May 31 45 – 42 -18.30 FALSE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester May 31 36 – 32 21.20 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins May 31 26 – 12 22.40 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Exeter Chiefs Jun 01 26 – 35 15.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Jun 07 Bath 8.20
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Jun 07 Exeter Chiefs 2.80
3 Gloucester vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Jun 07 Gloucester 29.10
4 Harlequins vs. Northampton Saints Jun 07 Northampton Saints -5.80
5 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Jun 07 Sale Sharks 2.20

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.98 11.56 1.40
Stade Rochelais 6.04 1.22 4.80
Montpellier 5.95 -0.21 6.20
Stade Francais 5.01 -2.17 7.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.45 4.78 -0.30
Section Paloise 4.29 2.21 2.10
Racing 92 3.78 1.88 1.90
Clermont 3.12 1.88 1.20
Toulon -0.31 3.49 -3.80
Lyon -0.54 -0.45 -0.10
Castres Olympique -1.15 0.59 -1.70
Bayonne -2.98 1.48 -4.50
USA Perpignan -4.78 -3.37 -1.40
Montauban -22.98 -10.00 -13.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 175 matches played, 137 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Montauban vs. Stade Rochelais May 31 15 – 71 -20.40 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise May 31 26 – 18 8.20 TRUE
3 Stade Francais vs. Bayonne May 31 38 – 21 14.10 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon May 31 39 – 31 21.00 TRUE
5 USA Perpignan vs. Castres Olympique May 31 29 – 27 3.00 TRUE
6 Clermont vs. Racing 92 Jun 01 13 – 41 8.00 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Jun 01 27 – 22 1.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. USA Perpignan Jun 07 Bayonne 8.30
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Jun 07 Bordeaux Begles 7.80
3 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Jun 07 Castres Olympique 5.70
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Jun 07 Lyon 0.00
5 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jun 07 Stade Toulousain -2.70
6 Section Paloise vs. Montauban Jun 07 Section Paloise 33.80
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Francais Jun 07 Stade Rochelais 7.50

 

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United Rugby Championship Predictions for the Semi-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Semi-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.94 13.41 -1.50
Bulls 10.79 8.86 1.90
Stormers 6.70 4.17 2.50
Glasgow 6.67 6.18 0.50
Connacht 2.73 -1.39 4.10
Sharks 2.15 1.29 0.90
Munster 1.65 3.65 -2.00
Lions 1.53 -1.19 2.70
Ulster -0.38 -3.24 2.90
Cardiff Rugby -2.27 -2.74 0.50
Edinburgh -3.43 2.67 -6.10
Scarlets -3.61 -0.54 -3.10
Ospreys -3.70 -2.15 -1.60
Benetton -6.97 -2.32 -4.70
Dragons -9.62 -15.66 6.00
Zebre -14.18 -11.02 -3.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 148 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Connacht May 30 33 – 21 10.60 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Munster May 30 45 – 14 14.30 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Cardiff Rugby May 31 44 – 21 14.90 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Lions May 31 59 – 10 14.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Semi-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Bulls Jun 07 Glasgow 2.90
2 Leinster vs. Stormers Jun 07 Leinster 12.20

 

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Super Rugby Predictions for the Quarter-finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Chiefs 13.08 12.36 0.70
Hurricanes 12.51 8.29 4.20
Crusaders 9.56 8.41 1.10
Blues 6.82 8.91 -2.10
Brumbies 3.28 5.59 -2.30
Reds 0.71 1.74 -1.00
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.89 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.57 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.96 -7.64 -0.30
Moana Pasifika -11.80 -7.88 -3.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 29 47 – 14 -0.30 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Fijian Drua May 29 45 – 24 12.90 TRUE
3 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika May 30 19 – 21 20.20 FALSE
4 Chiefs vs. Blues May 30 59 – 34 10.00 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 30 31 – 25 5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Hurricanes vs. Brumbies Jun 05 Hurricanes 12.70
2 Crusaders vs. Blues Jun 06 Crusaders 7.70
3 Chiefs vs. Reds Jun 06 Chiefs 15.90

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 14

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Team Ratings for Round 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.54 8.77 3.80
Warriors 6.75 -1.18 7.90
Sharks 5.94 7.25 -1.30
Roosters 5.83 9.50 -3.70
Sea Eagles 5.19 0.21 5.00
Dolphins 4.75 1.85 2.90
Storm 2.33 6.96 -4.60
Cowboys -0.29 -2.69 2.40
Rabbitohs -0.37 -5.05 4.70
Broncos -0.77 7.06 -7.80
Raiders -1.33 1.62 -2.90
Bulldogs -4.42 2.13 -6.50
Knights -4.71 -14.06 9.30
Wests Tigers -4.98 -7.26 2.30
Titans -6.75 -8.02 1.30
Eels -6.86 -0.37 -6.50
Dragons -12.84 -6.72 -6.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 100 matches played, 61 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 29 28 – 22 4.40 TRUE
2 Knights vs. Eels May 30 28 – 22 6.20 TRUE
3 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 30 22 – 16 2.70 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Roosters May 30 18 – 4 -1.80 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Dragons May 31 26 – 30 19.30 FALSE
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 31 26 – 12 1.00 TRUE
7 Panthers vs. Warriors May 31 20 – 18 11.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 14

Here are the predictions for Round 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Jun 04 Sea Eagles 9.60
2 Storm vs. Knights Jun 05 Storm 11.00
3 Raiders vs. Roosters Jun 05 Roosters -3.20
4 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Jun 06 Dolphins -1.00
5 Broncos vs. Titans Jun 06 Broncos 10.00
6 Wests Tigers vs. Panthers Jun 07 Panthers -21.50
7 Sharks vs. Dragons Jun 07 Sharks 22.80
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 08 Bulldogs 6.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 14

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Team Ratings for Week 14

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 27.34 26.75 0.60
Sydney Swans 23.44 0.56 22.90
Hawthorn Hawks 18.89 22.83 -3.90
Fremantle Dockers 18.52 6.56 12.00
Adelaide Crows 12.11 15.32 -3.20
Brisbane Lions 10.78 26.20 -15.40
Western Bulldogs 9.67 26.06 -16.40
Gold Coast Suns 9.14 10.24 -1.10
GWS Giants 6.61 9.54 -2.90
Collingwood 6.37 11.76 -5.40
Melbourne Demons 0.50 1.64 -1.10
Carlton Blues -0.48 -4.77 4.30
St Kilda Saints -3.05 -7.63 4.60
Port Adelaide Power -10.24 -14.65 4.40
North Melbourne -12.25 -21.71 9.50
Essendon Bombers -30.74 -27.89 -2.80
West Coast Eagles -34.06 -39.36 5.30
Richmond Tigers -40.56 -29.44 -11.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 106 matches played, 75 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 28 67 – 119 -3.80 TRUE
2 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats May 29 88 – 84 -20.60 FALSE
3 Sydney Swans vs. Richmond Tigers May 30 170 – 56 68.20 TRUE
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers May 30 78 – 103 8.30 FALSE
5 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood May 30 97 – 93 3.10 TRUE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants May 31 70 – 119 1.30 FALSE
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 31 85 – 55 3.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 14

Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Adelaide Crows vs. Geelong Cats Jun 04 Geelong Cats -4.20
2 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Western Bulldogs Jun 05 Hawthorn Hawks 9.20
3 North Melbourne vs. Fremantle Dockers Jun 06 Fremantle Dockers -41.80
4 Gold Coast Suns vs. Brisbane Lions Jun 06 Gold Coast Suns 3.40
5 West Coast Eagles vs. Port Adelaide Power Jun 06 Port Adelaide Power -12.80
6 Sydney Swans vs. St Kilda Saints Jun 07 Sydney Swans 37.50
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Carlton Blues Jun 07 Carlton Blues -30.30
8 Collingwood vs. Melbourne Demons Jun 08 Collingwood 5.90

 

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May 28, 2026

Dirty comparisons

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RNZ: NZ among world’s worst for landfill waste per person 

RNZ: New Zealand generates double the global average of rubbish, report says (also repeated here and here)

This attributes the claim to a World Bank report, but doesn’t link to it or describe in any more detail where to find it.  Searching does give a World Bank report on waste. This does agree with the 2kg/person/day figure in the RNZ story, so it might be the right one. Here is a graph from it (click to embiggen)

There are clearly some outlying points here. They aren’t New Zealand, which is in the middle of the pack.   We have similar waste generation to other moderately rich countries.

The point here isn’t that New Zealand’s level of waste generation is ok. The point is that if you want to do something about it, you need to have a realistic understanding of what the problem actually is.  If you look at an older World Bank report, described in Stuff in 2018 and visualised here, you see that New Zealand actually was called out as notably high-waste back then, and was ranked 10th in the world.  We were generating 3.68 kg/person/day, so there’s been a big decrease — perhaps because of the ban on so-called single-use plastic bags.  The situation then is different from the situation now, but you wouldn’t be able to tell from the media coverage.

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May 26, 2026

Super Rugby Predictions for Week 16

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Team Ratings for Week 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 13.67 8.29 5.40
Chiefs 12.47 12.36 0.10
Crusaders 8.40 8.41 -0.00
Blues 7.43 8.91 -1.50
Brumbies 4.11 5.59 -1.50
Reds 0.34 1.74 -1.40
Highlanders -3.16 -3.06 -0.10
Western Force -3.92 -6.29 2.40
Waratahs -4.54 -5.84 1.30
Fijian Drua -7.59 -7.64 0.10
Moana Pasifika -12.63 -7.88 -4.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 52 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Crusaders vs. Chiefs May 22 36 – 32 0.60 TRUE
2 Waratahs vs. Brumbies May 22 14 – 21 -3.30 TRUE
3 Moana Pasifika vs. Reds May 23 31 – 33 -10.20 TRUE
4 Hurricanes vs. Highlanders May 23 45 – 28 22.40 TRUE
5 Western Force vs. Fijian Drua May 23 19 – 15 9.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 16

Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Crusaders vs. Hurricanes May 29 Hurricanes -0.30
2 Reds vs. Fijian Drua May 29 Reds 12.90
3 Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika May 30 Brumbies 20.20
4 Chiefs vs. Blues May 30 Chiefs 10.00
5 Western Force vs. Waratahs May 30 Western Force 5.60

 

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NRL Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.27 8.77 4.50
Roosters 6.98 9.50 -2.50
Warriors 6.02 -1.18 7.20
Sharks 5.76 7.25 -1.50
Sea Eagles 5.37 0.21 5.20
Dolphins 4.75 1.85 2.90
Storm 1.18 6.96 -5.80
Broncos 0.83 7.06 -6.20
Cowboys 0.68 -2.69 3.40
Rabbitohs -0.37 -5.05 4.70
Raiders -2.30 1.62 -3.90
Bulldogs -4.06 2.13 -6.20
Knights -4.69 -14.06 9.40
Wests Tigers -5.35 -7.26 1.90
Titans -6.75 -8.02 1.30
Eels -6.88 -0.37 -6.50
Dragons -14.44 -6.72 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Raiders vs. Dolphins May 21 22 – 30 -1.70 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Storm May 22 30 – 20 -3.20 FALSE
3 Dragons vs. Warriors May 23 12 – 30 -16.00 TRUE
4 Sea Eagles vs. Titans May 23 12 – 10 18.50 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Rabbitohs May 24 30 – 18 3.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Sea Eagles May 29 Sharks 4.40
2 Knights vs. Eels May 30 Knights 6.20
3 Wests Tigers vs. Bulldogs May 30 Wests Tigers 2.70
4 Storm vs. Roosters May 30 Roosters -1.80
5 Broncos vs. Dragons May 31 Broncos 19.30
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys May 31 Raiders 1.00
7 Panthers vs. Warriors May 31 Panthers 11.20

 

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AFL Predictions for Week 13

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Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Geelong Cats 29.22 26.75 2.50
Sydney Swans 20.04 0.56 19.50
Fremantle Dockers 16.00 6.56 9.40
Hawthorn Hawks 15.32 22.83 -7.50
Brisbane Lions 13.30 26.20 -12.90
Adelaide Crows 12.11 15.32 -3.20
Western Bulldogs 9.59 26.06 -16.50
Gold Coast Suns 9.14 10.24 -1.10
Collingwood 6.45 11.76 -5.30
Melbourne Demons 4.23 1.64 2.60
GWS Giants 2.88 9.54 -6.70
St Kilda Saints 0.52 -7.63 8.10
Carlton Blues -2.36 -4.77 2.40
Port Adelaide Power -10.24 -14.65 4.40
North Melbourne -12.25 -21.71 9.50
Essendon Bombers -28.73 -27.89 -0.80
West Coast Eagles -36.07 -39.36 3.30
Richmond Tigers -37.15 -29.44 -7.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 99 matches played, 71 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Adelaide Crows May 21 75 – 66 15.30 TRUE
2 Richmond Tigers vs. Essendon Bombers May 22 74 – 56 -13.10 FALSE
3 Fremantle Dockers vs. St Kilda Saints May 22 104 – 74 25.70 TRUE
4 North Melbourne vs. Gold Coast Suns May 23 111 – 105 -13.40 FALSE
5 Geelong Cats vs. Sydney Swans May 23 107 – 80 18.70 TRUE
6 Collingwood vs. West Coast Eagles May 23 92 – 82 61.10 TRUE
7 Port Adelaide Power vs. Carlton Blues May 23 58 – 92 9.60 FALSE
8 GWS Giants vs. Brisbane Lions May 24 166 – 88 -12.40 FALSE
9 Western Bulldogs vs. Melbourne Demons May 24 93 – 90 5.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Hawthorn Hawks May 28 Hawthorn Hawks -3.80
2 Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats May 29 Geelong Cats -20.60
3 Sydney Swans vs. Richmond Tigers May 30 Sydney Swans 68.20
4 Brisbane Lions vs. Fremantle Dockers May 30 Brisbane Lions 8.30
5 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood May 30 Western Bulldogs 3.10
6 Melbourne Demons vs. GWS Giants May 31 Melbourne Demons 1.30
7 West Coast Eagles vs. Essendon Bombers May 31 West Coast Eagles 3.70

 

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