October 5, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.31 12.13 -1.80
Bulls 9.74 10.00 -0.30
Glasgow 6.48 6.47 0.00
Stormers 6.39 6.49 -0.10
Sharks 3.96 2.16 1.80
Lions 2.72 1.48 1.20
Connacht 1.67 2.62 -0.90
Munster 1.55 1.25 0.30
Ulster -0.28 -0.32 0.00
Edinburgh -0.92 -2.55 1.60
Cardiff Rugby -1.67 -1.63 -0.00
Ospreys -4.58 -3.35 -1.20
Scarlets -5.04 -3.47 -1.60
Benetton -7.61 -6.67 -0.90
Dragons -8.20 -10.04 1.80
Zebre -14.51 -14.56 0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 5 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 31.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Connacht Oct 03 19 – 22 -4.00 TRUE
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre Oct 03 40 – 27 20.00 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 03 17 – 13 -3.60 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Ospreys Oct 04 35 – 19 11.80 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Scarlets Oct 04 38 – 26 -2.20 FALSE
6 Sharks vs. Leinster Oct 04 26 – 20 -3.00 FALSE
7 Glasgow vs. Ulster Oct 04 33 – 33 13.80 FALSE
8 Munster vs. Bulls Oct 04 26 – 22 -4.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Ospreys Oct 10 Ospreys -1.10
2 Glasgow vs. Connacht Oct 10 Glasgow 10.30
3 Bulls vs. Lions Oct 11 Bulls 9.50
4 Stormers vs. Sharks Oct 11 Stormers 4.90
5 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Oct 11 Edinburgh -8.10
6 Scarlets vs. Benetton Oct 11 Scarlets 8.10
7 Ulster vs. Munster Oct 11 Ulster 0.70
8 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 11 Leinster 17.50

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.43 12.37 0.10
Montpellier 6.91 6.36 0.50
Bordeaux Begles 5.04 3.70 1.30
Section Paloise 5.04 4.18 0.90
Stade Rochelais 4.71 4.97 -0.30
Stade Francais 4.39 5.68 -1.30
Clermont 3.08 4.21 -1.10
Racing 92 2.11 3.59 -1.50
Lyon -0.03 -0.94 0.90
Toulon -0.79 -0.81 0.00
Castres Olympique -1.13 -0.29 -0.80
Bayonne -1.75 -2.02 0.30
USA Perpignan -5.10 -5.39 0.30
Vannes -9.31 -10.00 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 35 matches played, 27 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Oct 04 51 – 28 10.70 TRUE
2 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 04 35 – 32 0.00 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 04 55 – 25 12.50 TRUE
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Oct 04 38 – 13 6.90 TRUE
5 Vannes vs. Section Paloise Oct 04 40 – 43 -8.50 TRUE
6 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 04 7 – 8 -7.90 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Toulon Oct 05 28 – 0 13.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 11 Clermont 4.50
2 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 11 Lyon 1.80
3 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Oct 11 Section Paloise 12.70
4 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Oct 11 Stade Francais 4.00
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Oct 11 Stade Toulousain 20.70
6 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Oct 11 Toulon 3.60
7 USA Perpignan vs. Vannes Oct 11 USA Perpignan 10.70

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 9.78 9.66 0.10
Leicester Tigers 7.46 9.92 -2.50
Saracens 7.20 8.04 -0.80
Northampton Saints 6.59 8.34 -1.80
Exeter Chiefs 5.53 7.58 -2.10
Bristol 2.14 -0.11 2.30
Gloucester 1.85 -3.46 5.30
Sale Sharks -1.74 -2.31 0.60
Harlequins -6.96 -3.58 -3.40
Newcastle Red Bulls -23.14 -25.37 2.20

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 03 40 – 34 12.60 TRUE
2 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Oct 04 41 – 26 0.30 TRUE
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Oct 04 48 – 0 10.60 TRUE
4 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 04 19 – 24 -26.80 TRUE
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Oct 05 17 – 21 19.30 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Oct 10 Leicester Tigers 12.60
2 Northampton Saints vs. Bath Oct 11 Northampton Saints 3.80
3 Saracens vs. Bristol Oct 11 Saracens 12.10
4 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Oct 12 Exeter Chiefs 35.70
5 Sale Sharks vs. Harlequins Oct 12 Sale Sharks 12.20

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

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Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 10.14 7.57 2.60
Canterbury 8.08 10.29 -2.20
Otago 6.82 5.80 1.00
Hawke’s Bay 4.41 5.18 -0.80
Bay of Plenty 3.05 9.80 -6.80
North Harbour 2.91 -4.18 7.10
Northland 2.70 -5.96 8.70
Tasman 1.72 0.68 1.00
Waikato -0.34 -0.83 0.50
Auckland -1.21 -2.64 1.40
Counties Manukau -1.91 3.63 -5.50
Manawatu -8.51 -15.05 6.50
Wellington -10.77 2.70 -13.50
Southland -10.93 -10.83 -0.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Otago vs. Auckland Oct 01 45 – 42 12.50 TRUE
2 Southland vs. Northland Oct 02 14 – 28 -9.60 TRUE
3 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Oct 03 12 – 22 -14.70 TRUE
4 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 03 12 – 7 -4.80 FALSE
5 Waikato vs. Tasman Oct 03 33 – 50 3.60 FALSE
6 Taranaki vs. Wellington Oct 04 68 – 26 21.20 TRUE
7 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Oct 04 38 – 21 0.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Quarter-Finals

Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Northland vs. Tasman Oct 09 Northland 4.00
2 North Harbour vs. Taranaki Oct 10 Taranaki -4.20
3 Otago vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 10 Otago 5.40
4 Canterbury vs. Waikato Oct 11 Canterbury 11.40

 

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October 4, 2026

Fool me twice

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This graph (from Semafor) has circulated a lot on social media

It shows an incredible drop in tourist visits to the US this year. Literally incredible (literally literally).

Kieran Healy explains what the problem is (we have only partial data for 2026) and gives a better graph, showing that tourism from Canada is genuinely down to some extent, but there isn’t a huge difference for other major countries (though NZ, which he doesn’t look at, is also down).

What’s embarrassing for the data-oriented social media community is that it’s the second time. Last March, a substantial fall in US visitor numbers “year on year” was seen, and interpreted as a backlash to President Trump.  In fact, the “fall” was just that the Easter tourism peak had moved from March in 2024 to April in 2025.  We can blame the Council of Nicaea, not the US President.

Interestingly, if you look at the text in the linked Semaphor piece, it says visits are “on track to drop by almost two million year-on-year”, which seems to fit Kieran’s corrected graph rather than the original one.

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September 30, 2026

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

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Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.39 12.13 -0.70
Bulls 10.80 10.00 0.80
Stormers 7.31 6.49 0.80
Glasgow 7.23 6.47 0.80
Sharks 2.88 2.16 0.70
Lions 2.21 1.48 0.70
Connacht 1.79 2.62 -0.80
Munster 0.49 1.25 -0.80
Cardiff Rugby -0.83 -1.63 0.80
Ulster -1.03 -0.32 -0.70
Edinburgh -1.84 -2.55 0.70
Ospreys -4.07 -3.35 -0.70
Scarlets -4.27 -3.47 -0.80
Benetton -7.74 -6.67 -1.10
Dragons -8.97 -10.04 1.10
Zebre -15.36 -14.56 -0.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 25%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Benetton vs. Dragons Sept 26 19 – 19 8.90 FALSE
2 Connacht vs. Stormers Sept 26 15 – 29 1.60 FALSE
3 Ulster vs. Edinburgh Sept 26 29 – 34 7.70 FALSE
4 Lions vs. Leinster Sept 26 27 – 26 -5.10 FALSE
5 Sharks vs. Ospreys Sept 27 41 – 24 11.00 TRUE
6 Munster vs. Glasgow Sept 27 20 – 26 0.30 FALSE
7 Zebre vs. Bulls Sept 27 13 – 47 -19.10 TRUE
8 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Sept 27 15 – 21 0.70 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Benetton vs. Connacht Oct 03 Connacht -4.00
2 Cardiff Rugby vs. Zebre Oct 03 Cardiff Rugby 20.00
3 Edinburgh vs. Stormers Oct 03 Stormers -3.60
4 Lions vs. Ospreys Oct 04 Lions 11.80
5 Dragons vs. Scarlets Oct 04 Scarlets -2.20
6 Sharks vs. Leinster Oct 04 Leinster -3.00
7 Glasgow vs. Ulster Oct 04 Glasgow 13.80
8 Munster vs. Bulls Oct 04 Bulls -4.80

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 5

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Team Ratings for Round 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.85 12.37 0.50
Montpellier 6.39 6.36 0.00
Section Paloise 5.37 4.18 1.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.59 3.70 0.90
Stade Francais 4.57 5.68 -1.10
Stade Rochelais 4.10 4.97 -0.90
Clermont 3.69 4.21 -0.50
Racing 92 1.52 3.59 -2.10
Lyon 0.42 -0.94 1.40
Toulon -0.27 -0.81 0.50
Castres Olympique -1.54 -0.29 -1.30
Bayonne -1.93 -2.02 0.10
USA Perpignan -4.51 -5.39 0.90
Vannes -9.64 -10.00 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Sept 27 38 – 25 -3.70 FALSE
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Sept 27 20 – 6 11.40 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne Sept 27 17 – 20 10.90 FALSE
4 Stade Francais vs. Lyon Sept 27 31 – 10 9.80 TRUE
5 Toulon vs. Vannes Sept 27 28 – 10 15.60 TRUE
6 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Sept 27 39 – 17 6.70 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Sept 28 40 – 18 12.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 5

Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon Oct 04 Bordeaux Begles 10.70
2 Bayonne vs. Stade Francais Oct 04 Bayonne 0.00
3 Racing 92 vs. USA Perpignan Oct 04 Racing 92 12.50
4 Stade Rochelais vs. Clermont Oct 04 Stade Rochelais 6.90
5 Vannes vs. Section Paloise Oct 04 Section Paloise -8.50
6 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 04 Stade Toulousain -7.90
7 Montpellier vs. Toulon Oct 05 Montpellier 13.20

 

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Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

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Team Ratings for Round 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 10.44 9.66 0.80
Leicester Tigers 9.06 9.92 -0.90
Saracens 8.90 8.04 0.90
Northampton Saints 7.72 8.34 -0.60
Exeter Chiefs 4.88 7.58 -2.70
Bristol 1.02 -0.11 1.10
Gloucester -0.75 -3.46 2.70
Sale Sharks -3.44 -2.31 -1.10
Harlequins -4.36 -3.58 -0.80
Newcastle Red Bulls -24.74 -25.37 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 2 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 40%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Bath Sept 26 17 – 33 -6.20 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Red Bulls Sept 26 59 – 26 40.70 TRUE
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Sept 27 24 – 45 18.00 FALSE
4 Sale Sharks vs. Bristol Sept 27 24 – 34 4.80 FALSE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Saracens Sept 28 38 – 40 8.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bath vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 03 Bath 12.60
2 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Oct 04 Bristol 0.30
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Oct 04 Gloucester 10.60
4 Newcastle Red Bulls vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 04 Leicester Tigers -26.80
5 Saracens vs. Sale Sharks Oct 05 Saracens 19.30

 

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NRL Predictions for the Grand Final

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Team Ratings for the Grand Final

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 9.14 8.77 0.40
Warriors 7.94 -1.18 9.10
Roosters 7.92 9.50 -1.60
Dolphins 6.13 1.85 4.30
Storm 3.08 6.96 -3.90
Knights 2.93 -14.06 17.00
Sharks 2.65 7.25 -4.60
Sea Eagles 2.09 0.21 1.90
Rabbitohs 2.06 -5.05 7.10
Raiders 0.57 1.62 -1.00
Bulldogs -1.37 2.13 -3.50
Cowboys -3.94 -2.69 -1.30
Eels -4.11 -0.37 -3.70
Broncos -5.52 7.06 -12.60
Titans -7.06 -8.02 1.00
Dragons -10.59 -6.72 -3.90
Wests Tigers -11.91 -7.26 -4.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 212 matches played, 134 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dolphins vs. Roosters Sept 25 20 – 36 5.20 FALSE
2 Panthers vs. Knights Sept 27 14 – 22 13.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for the Grand Final

Here are the predictions for the Grand Final. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Knights Oct 04 Roosters 9.00

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 10

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Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Taranaki 8.78 7.57 1.20
Canterbury 8.65 10.29 -1.60
Otago 7.55 5.80 1.70
Hawke’s Bay 5.16 5.18 -0.00
North Harbour 4.01 -4.18 8.20
Northland 2.17 -5.96 8.10
Bay of Plenty 1.94 9.80 -7.90
Waikato 1.01 -0.83 1.80
Tasman 0.37 0.68 -0.30
Auckland -1.93 -2.64 0.70
Counties Manukau -2.66 3.63 -6.30
Manawatu -9.08 -15.05 6.00
Wellington -9.41 2.70 -12.10
Southland -10.40 -10.83 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 39 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 61.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Tasman vs. Bay of Plenty Sept 24 45 – 26 -1.20 FALSE
2 Auckland vs. Manawatu Sept 25 34 – 40 12.60 FALSE
3 Northland vs. Counties Manukau Sept 26 19 – 22 9.70 FALSE
4 Canterbury vs. Southland Sept 26 34 – 21 23.60 TRUE
5 North Harbour vs. Otago Sept 26 32 – 21 -2.50 FALSE
6 Wellington vs. Waikato Sept 27 10 – 34 -4.90 TRUE
7 Hawke’s Bay vs. Taranaki Sept 27 14 – 50 4.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Otago vs. Auckland Oct 01 Otago 12.50
2 Southland vs. Northland Oct 02 Northland -9.60
3 Manawatu vs. Canterbury Oct 03 Canterbury -14.70
4 Counties Manukau vs. Hawke’s Bay Oct 03 Hawke’s Bay -4.80
5 Waikato vs. Tasman Oct 03 Waikato 3.60
6 Taranaki vs. Wellington Oct 04 Taranaki 21.20
7 Bay of Plenty vs. North Harbour Oct 04 Bay of Plenty 0.90

 

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