Stats Chat

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 112 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for the Super Bowl

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 284 matches played, 172 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for the Super Bowl

Here are the predictions for the Super Bowl. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 76 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 85 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 50 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

• From the BBC “Vitamin D deficiency linked to hospital admissions”. This is from a large British study correlating vitamin D levels in the blood with hospital admissions for respiratory infections. You might say “Someone ought to do a clinical trial to see if giving people vitamin D reduces infections or if  it’s just correlation”. Someone has, here in NZ. Also, if you combine all the trials on this question you get an estimate of somewhere between a 10% reduction and a 4% increase. It’s still possible that it works in people with especially low vitamin D or something, but across a range of diseases randomised clinical trials of vitamin D have been robustly disappointing in comparison to correlational studies.
• From Derek Lowe, a post on extremely bad clinical trial conduct. This isn’t fraud by Big Pharma — if it counts as fraud, Big Pharma is a victim (along with some, but possibly not all, of the trial participants)
• “A very detailed map of Trump’s job approval” from Strength In Numbers (click to embiggen). “The basic idea is that we fit a model predicting approval based on demographics and geography, then use Census data to weight those predictions by the actual population composition of each area. Election results are used to calibrate estimates to sensible baselines, so we have a real-world check against our survey data. It lets us produce reliable estimates even for places where we only have a handful of direct survey respondents.”
  
• From the Guardian, Australian supermarket online prices per each can be very different from the in-store per-kg prices. Most dramatically, green capsicums were allegedly 50% more expensive per each.
• Bogus polls show increases in church attendance by young adults: Pew Research

Right now, it is very cold in the central and eastern United States.  Minneapolis has been in the news (for this as well as the bad sort of ice), but it’s not just there. The Mayor of New York has warned locals about a major snowstorm (and suggested it would be a good time to stay home and borrow the e-book or audiobook of  Heated Rivalry from the city libraries). There’s freezing weather in parts of Texas that are really not built to handle it.

Various people, as usual, have said the cold weather refutes global warming.

As you all know, the issue with global warming  is that it’s global (there’s a hint in the name) rather than local.  I always recommend looking at global temperature patterns.  Here’s the global temperature anomaly, from Climate Reanalyzer, at the University of Maine

The map is based on today’s weather forecast around the world, averaged over 24 hours and compared to the average for the same day of the year from 1979 to 2000.  As you can see, it’s unusually cold in the USA. It’s also unusually cold in a band across Asia. On the other hand, it’s unusually warm in Greenland and the far north of North America and in Siberia.

This image shows a view around the north pole

You can see here the problem is that the cold that belongs up in the Arctic has slipped down over Asia and North America.  There isn’t extra cold in the world, it’s just in unusual places.  This sort of unusual movement of north polar air is perfectly consistent with global warming models.

Team Ratings for the Conference Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 282 matches played, 170 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for the Conference Finals

Here are the predictions for the Conference Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Team Ratings for the Divisional Finals

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Performance So Far

So far there have been 278 matches played, 167 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Predictions for the Divisional Finals

Here are the predictions for the Divisional Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.