August 25, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 26

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Team Ratings for Round 26

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Warriors 11.59 -1.18 12.80
Panthers 9.81 8.77 1.00
Sharks 7.99 7.25 0.70
Roosters 7.79 9.50 -1.70
Dolphins 5.67 1.85 3.80
Bulldogs 0.93 2.13 -1.20
Storm 0.55 6.96 -6.40
Sea Eagles -0.33 0.21 -0.50
Rabbitohs -0.42 -5.05 4.60
Raiders -0.96 1.62 -2.60
Knights -1.23 -14.06 12.80
Cowboys -3.01 -2.69 -0.30
Eels -5.43 -0.37 -5.10
Broncos -5.62 7.06 -12.70
Titans -6.55 -8.02 1.50
Dragons -9.79 -6.72 -3.10
Wests Tigers -10.99 -7.26 -3.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 188 matches played, 122 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 64.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 20 14 – 22 -4.50 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 21 30 – 34 10.80 FALSE
3 Dolphins vs. Eels Aug 21 34 – 16 14.30 TRUE
4 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 24 – 44 6.70 FALSE
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 22 26 – 45 -6.10 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 14 – 44 -7.60 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 23 22 – 30 -11.30 TRUE
8 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 23 24 – 25 26.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 26

Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 27 Storm -2.20
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dragons Aug 28 Sea Eagles 13.50
3 Panthers vs. Bulldogs Aug 28 Panthers 8.90
4 Titans vs. Rabbitohs Aug 29 Rabbitohs -2.10
5 Roosters vs. Dolphins Aug 29 Roosters 6.10
6 Cowboys vs. Wests Tigers Aug 29 Cowboys 12.00
7 Warriors vs. Knights Aug 30 Warriors 16.80
8 Eels vs. Sharks Aug 30 Sharks -9.40

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hawke’s Bay 9.79 5.18 4.60
Canterbury 7.54 10.29 -2.80
Bay of Plenty 7.34 9.80 -2.50
Otago 6.86 5.80 1.10
Taranaki 4.87 7.57 -2.70
Waikato 2.51 -0.83 3.30
North Harbour 1.66 -4.18 5.80
Northland 0.95 -5.96 6.90
Tasman 0.92 0.68 0.20
Auckland -2.22 -2.64 0.40
Counties Manukau -2.83 3.63 -6.50
Wellington -3.27 2.70 -6.00
Southland -12.24 -10.83 -1.40
Manawatu -15.70 -15.05 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 28 matches played, 17 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Canterbury vs. Northland Aug 20 12 – 36 14.00 FALSE
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Aug 21 59 – 17 26.30 TRUE
3 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 22 46 – 17 14.10 TRUE
4 North Harbour vs. Auckland Aug 22 27 – 19 6.50 TRUE
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 22 28 – 24 5.90 TRUE
6 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 23 45 – 12 4.90 TRUE
7 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 23 61 – 22 9.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Southland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 27 Hawke’s Bay -19.00
2 Auckland vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 28 Bay of Plenty -6.60
3 Taranaki vs. Canterbury Aug 29 Taranaki 0.30
4 Otago vs. Waikato Aug 29 Otago 7.30
5 Manawatu vs. North Harbour Aug 29 North Harbour -14.40
6 Wellington vs. Counties Manukau Aug 30 Wellington 2.60
7 Northland vs. Tasman Aug 30 Northland 3.00

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 7

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Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Griquas 11.74 9.78 2.00
Lions 11.35 14.61 -3.30
Pumas 3.02 5.36 -2.30
Cheetahs 0.93 -2.42 3.40
Boland Cavaliers -1.65 -4.25 2.60
Sharks -4.97 -4.65 -0.30
Bulls -5.98 -2.24 -3.70
Stormers -8.25 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 24 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 22 14 – 38 -3.50 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Stormers Aug 22 26 – 50 8.50 FALSE
3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 22 – 22 -15.10 FALSE
4 Cheetahs vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 24 33 – 24 4.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Lions vs. Stormers Aug 29 Lions 22.60
2 Sharks vs. Bulls Aug 29 Sharks 4.00
3 Pumas vs. Cheetahs Aug 29 Pumas 5.10
4 Boland Cavaliers vs. Griquas Aug 31 Griquas -10.40

 

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AFL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Brisbane Lions 24.44 26.20 -1.80
Sydney Swans 23.04 0.56 22.50
Fremantle Dockers 22.75 6.56 16.20
Geelong Cats 22.64 26.75 -4.10
Hawthorn Hawks 16.57 22.83 -6.30
Adelaide Crows 14.94 15.32 -0.40
Melbourne Demons 10.76 1.64 9.10
Carlton Blues 7.61 -4.77 12.40
Western Bulldogs 4.92 26.06 -21.10
Collingwood 3.18 11.76 -8.60
GWS Giants -0.48 9.54 -10.00
Gold Coast Suns -1.87 10.24 -12.10
St Kilda Saints -3.24 -7.63 4.40
North Melbourne -10.83 -21.71 10.90
Port Adelaide Power -18.07 -14.65 -3.40
West Coast Eagles -33.36 -39.36 6.00
Richmond Tigers -33.74 -29.44 -4.30
Essendon Bombers -37.26 -27.89 -9.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 207 matches played, 147 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 20 80 – 103 15.40 FALSE
2 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 21 96 – 159 -1.20 TRUE
3 Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants Aug 22 157 – 101 21.20 TRUE
4 Carlton Blues vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 22 119 – 82 -11.30 FALSE
5 Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 22 133 – 76 69.70 TRUE
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs Aug 22 87 – 108 10.60 FALSE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 23 95 – 104 -8.00 TRUE
8 Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne Aug 23 123 – 70 43.10 TRUE
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 23 45 – 107 -34.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood Aug 28 Western Bulldogs 1.70
2 Melbourne Demons vs. Carlton Blues Aug 29 Melbourne Demons 3.10

 

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August 19, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 25

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Team Ratings for Round 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Warriors 10.62 -1.18 11.80
Roosters 9.62 9.50 0.10
Panthers 9.43 8.77 0.70
Sharks 8.35 7.25 1.10
Dolphins 5.26 1.85 3.40
Storm 0.94 6.96 -6.00
Knights 0.56 -14.06 14.60
Rabbitohs 0.55 -5.05 5.60
Raiders 0.13 1.62 -1.50
Bulldogs -0.62 2.13 -2.70
Sea Eagles -2.13 0.21 -2.30
Cowboys -3.01 -2.69 -0.30
Eels -5.02 -0.37 -4.60
Broncos -6.71 7.06 -13.80
Titans -6.91 -8.02 1.10
Dragons -8.25 -6.72 -1.50
Wests Tigers -12.82 -7.26 -5.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 180 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Aug 13 6 – 12 5.60 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Aug 14 0 – 22 -0.40 TRUE
3 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Aug 14 6 – 22 1.30 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 15 20 – 24 14.90 FALSE
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Aug 15 32 – 30 2.00 TRUE
6 Broncos vs. Warriors Aug 15 6 – 40 -10.10 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Titans Aug 16 36 – 26 11.90 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 16 22 – 24 -0.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 25

Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Storm vs. Panthers Aug 20 Panthers -4.50
2 Raiders vs. Broncos Aug 21 Raiders 10.80
3 Dolphins vs. Eels Aug 21 Dolphins 14.30
4 Knights vs. Sea Eagles Aug 22 Knights 6.70
5 Rabbitohs vs. Warriors Aug 22 Warriors -6.10
6 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Aug 22 Bulldogs -7.60
7 Titans vs. Sharks Aug 23 Sharks -11.30
8 Roosters vs. Wests Tigers Aug 23 Roosters 26.40

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 4

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Team Ratings for Week 4

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.74 10.29 -0.60
Hawke’s Bay 8.70 5.18 3.50
Bay of Plenty 7.57 9.80 -2.20
Otago 5.06 5.80 -0.70
Taranaki 4.64 7.57 -2.90
North Harbour 1.49 -4.18 5.70
Waikato 0.77 -0.83 1.60
Tasman -0.13 0.68 -0.80
Counties Manukau -1.10 3.63 -4.70
Northland -1.25 -5.96 4.70
Wellington -1.47 2.70 -4.20
Auckland -2.04 -2.64 0.60
Southland -11.20 -10.83 -0.40
Manawatu -14.61 -15.05 0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 21 matches played, 11 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Wellington vs. North Harbour Aug 13 7 – 47 5.10 FALSE
2 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 14 42 – 0 -8.40 FALSE
3 Canterbury vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 33 – 28 5.20 TRUE
4 Auckland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 15 31 – 44 -6.10 TRUE
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Aug 15 27 – 29 -19.00 TRUE
6 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 16 32 – 31 -10.70 FALSE
7 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Aug 16 35 – 50 4.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 4

Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Canterbury vs. Northland Aug 20 Canterbury 14.00
2 Hawke’s Bay vs. Manawatu Aug 21 Hawke’s Bay 26.30
3 Tasman vs. Southland Aug 22 Tasman 14.10
4 North Harbour vs. Auckland Aug 22 North Harbour 6.50
5 Bay of Plenty vs. Taranaki Aug 22 Bay of Plenty 5.90
6 Waikato vs. Counties Manukau Aug 23 Waikato 4.90
7 Otago vs. Wellington Aug 23 Otago 9.50

 

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Currie Cup Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 12.22 14.61 -2.40
Griquas 10.62 9.78 0.80
Pumas 4.14 5.36 -1.20
Cheetahs 0.51 -2.42 2.90
Boland Cavaliers -1.22 -4.25 3.00
Bulls -4.36 -2.24 -2.10
Sharks -5.84 -4.65 -1.20
Stormers -9.87 -10.00 0.10

Performance So Far

So far there have been 20 matches played, 13 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Lions vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 15 29 – 38 19.30 FALSE
2 Griquas vs. Sharks Aug 15 55 – 21 17.60 TRUE
3 Pumas vs. Stormers Aug 16 29 – 7 16.20 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Cheetahs Aug 17 52 – 62 -0.70 TRUE

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Pumas vs. Griquas Aug 22 Griquas -3.50
2 Bulls vs. Stormers Aug 22 Bulls 8.50
3 Sharks vs. Lions Aug 22 Lions -15.10
4 Cheetahs vs. Boland Cavaliers Aug 24 Cheetahs 4.70
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AFL Predictions for Week 25

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Team Ratings for Week 25

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Fremantle Dockers 26.33 6.56 19.80
Geelong Cats 23.78 26.75 -3.00
Sydney Swans 22.15 0.56 21.60
Brisbane Lions 19.91 26.20 -6.30
Hawthorn Hawks 14.50 22.83 -8.30
Melbourne Demons 13.15 1.64 11.50
Adelaide Crows 12.31 15.32 -3.00
Collingwood 7.70 11.76 -4.10
Carlton Blues 4.03 -4.77 8.80
Western Bulldogs 2.52 26.06 -23.50
GWS Giants 2.14 9.54 -7.40
St Kilda Saints -0.36 -7.63 7.30
Gold Coast Suns -4.75 10.24 -15.00
North Melbourne -9.94 -21.71 11.80
Port Adelaide Power -18.16 -14.65 -3.50
West Coast Eagles -31.28 -39.36 8.10
Richmond Tigers -34.88 -29.44 -5.40
Essendon Bombers -37.17 -27.89 -9.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 198 matches played, 141 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Fremantle Dockers vs. Adelaide Crows Aug 14 112 – 88 25.20 TRUE
2 Brisbane Lions vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 15 95 – 53 27.40 TRUE
3 Hawthorn Hawks vs. Collingwood Aug 15 92 – 92 8.30 FALSE
4 North Melbourne vs. Geelong Cats Aug 15 110 – 125 -24.40 TRUE
5 Port Adelaide Power vs. Melbourne Demons Aug 15 56 – 132 -10.80 TRUE
6 Richmond Tigers vs. St Kilda Saints Aug 15 45 – 94 -31.80 TRUE
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Sydney Swans Aug 16 76 – 112 -50.60 TRUE
8 GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles Aug 16 111 – 57 42.30 TRUE
9 Western Bulldogs vs. Carlton Blues Aug 16 82 – 82 -1.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 25

Here are the predictions for Week 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 St Kilda Saints vs. Gold Coast Suns Aug 20 St Kilda Saints 15.40
2 Collingwood vs. Brisbane Lions Aug 21 Brisbane Lions -1.20
3 Adelaide Crows vs. GWS Giants Aug 22 Adelaide Crows 21.20
4 Carlton Blues vs. Fremantle Dockers Aug 22 Fremantle Dockers -11.30
5 Geelong Cats vs. Richmond Tigers Aug 22 Geelong Cats 69.70
6 Melbourne Demons vs. Western Bulldogs Aug 22 Melbourne Demons 10.60
7 Essendon Bombers vs. Port Adelaide Power Aug 23 Port Adelaide Power -8.00
8 Sydney Swans vs. North Melbourne Aug 23 Sydney Swans 43.10
9 West Coast Eagles vs. Hawthorn Hawks Aug 23 Hawthorn Hawks -34.80

 

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August 10, 2026

NRL Predictions for Round 24

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Team Ratings for Round 24

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 10.31 8.77 1.50
Sharks 9.69 7.25 2.40
Warriors 8.99 -1.18 10.20
Roosters 8.74 9.50 -0.80
Dolphins 3.76 1.85 1.90
Storm 0.94 6.96 -6.00
Knights 0.77 -14.06 14.80
Bulldogs 0.63 2.13 -1.50
Sea Eagles -0.63 0.21 -0.80
Rabbitohs -0.70 -5.05 4.40
Raiders -1.21 1.62 -2.80
Cowboys -3.00 -2.69 -0.30
Eels -5.02 -0.37 -4.60
Broncos -5.08 7.06 -12.10
Titans -7.11 -8.02 0.90
Dragons -8.45 -6.72 -1.70
Wests Tigers -12.62 -7.26 -5.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 172 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Cowboys Aug 06 8 – 30 3.30 FALSE
2 Warriors vs. Panthers Aug 07 28 – 12 0.40 TRUE
3 Roosters vs. Bulldogs Aug 07 20 – 18 13.90 TRUE
4 Storm vs. Sea Eagles Aug 08 42 – 20 -1.70 FALSE
5 Dolphins vs. Broncos Aug 08 40 – 32 9.10 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Eels Aug 08 28 – 24 9.50 TRUE
7 Raiders vs. Knights Aug 09 24 – 30 3.50 FALSE
8 Dragons vs. Sharks Aug 09 24 – 16 -17.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 24

Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Panthers vs. Roosters Aug 13 Panthers 5.60
2 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Aug 14 Dolphins -0.40
3 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Aug 14 Bulldogs 1.30
4 Sharks vs. Raiders Aug 15 Sharks 14.90
5 Eels vs. Cowboys Aug 15 Eels 2.00
6 Broncos vs. Warriors Aug 15 Warriors -10.10
7 Knights vs. Titans Aug 16 Knights 11.90
8 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons Aug 16 Dragons -0.20

 

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Bunnings NPC Predictions for Week 3

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Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Canterbury 9.76 10.29 -0.50
Hawke’s Bay 7.87 5.18 2.70
Bay of Plenty 7.54 9.80 -2.30
Taranaki 7.40 7.57 -0.20
Otago 6.21 5.80 0.40
Waikato 1.63 -0.83 2.50
Wellington 1.05 2.70 -1.70
Counties Manukau 0.20 3.63 -3.40
North Harbour -1.04 -4.18 3.10
Auckland -1.21 -2.64 1.40
Tasman -1.42 0.68 -2.10
Northland -4.01 -5.96 1.90
Southland -12.06 -10.83 -1.20
Manawatu -15.77 -15.05 -0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 14 matches played, 8 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 North Harbour vs. Counties Manukau Aug 06 59 – 19 -3.10 FALSE
2 Taranaki vs. Waikato Aug 07 32 – 38 11.10 FALSE
3 Auckland vs. Wellington Aug 08 34 – 31 0.00 TRUE
4 Bay of Plenty vs. Northland Aug 08 34 – 31 16.50 TRUE
5 Hawke’s Bay vs. Tasman Aug 08 50 – 19 9.50 TRUE
6 Otago vs. Canterbury Aug 09 15 – 19 0.50 FALSE
7 Manawatu vs. Southland Aug 09 36 – 35 -1.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Wellington vs. North Harbour Aug 13 Wellington 5.10
2 Northland vs. Taranaki Aug 14 Taranaki -8.40
3 Canterbury vs. Bay of Plenty Aug 15 Canterbury 5.20
4 Auckland vs. Hawke’s Bay Aug 15 Hawke’s Bay -6.10
5 Manawatu vs. Otago Aug 15 Otago -19.00
6 Southland vs. Waikato Aug 16 Waikato -10.70
7 Counties Manukau vs. Tasman Aug 16 Counties Manukau 4.60

 

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