November 24, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 11

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Team Ratings for Round 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.57 11.56 1.00
Bordeaux Begles 4.19 4.78 -0.60
Toulon 4.10 3.49 0.60
Section Paloise 3.31 2.21 1.10
Clermont 3.03 1.88 1.10
Stade Rochelais 2.60 1.22 1.40
Racing 92 1.77 1.88 -0.10
Montpellier 1.47 -0.21 1.70
Stade Francais 1.28 -2.17 3.50
Bayonne 1.14 1.48 -0.30
Castres Olympique -0.76 0.59 -1.40
Lyon -1.26 -0.45 -0.80
USA Perpignan -6.95 -3.37 -3.60
Montauban -13.61 -10.00 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 70 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Nov 22 33 – 34 8.10 FALSE
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Nov 23 43 – 24 1.00 TRUE
3 Montauban vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 23 7 – 49 -18.20 TRUE
4 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne Nov 23 47 – 27 6.10 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Nov 23 17 – 19 10.80 FALSE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Nov 23 0 – 28 -0.20 TRUE
7 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Nov 24 51 – 24 2.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 11

Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Lyon Nov 30 Bayonne 8.90
2 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Nov 30 Castres Olympique 12.70
3 Clermont vs. Stade Francais Nov 30 Clermont 8.20
4 Montpellier vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 30 Montpellier 3.80
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Racing 92 Nov 30 Stade Toulousain 17.30
6 Toulon vs. Montauban Nov 30 Toulon 24.20
7 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Dec 01 Section Paloise 7.20

 

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November 16, 2025

50-year mortgages and avocado toast

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Sometimes society or government faces a problem where not enough money is being spent on something.  Kiwis on average aren’t allocating enough money to retirement, or councils aren’t investing enough money on water infrastructure. In that scenario, you want to spend more money.  Kiwisaver was supposed to get people to save more. Making people save more was the initial effort of the “nudge” industry. No-one seems to really know how to make councils plan for water infrastructure,  but it would be nice if we could.

The housing industry is not like that. The problem with housing prices is not that we are spending too little on houses. We (collectively) are spending too much on houses. That’s why avocado toast is not a housing issue* — if abolishing avocado toast would increase total expenditure on housing, we’d be worse off, not better off.

This week, in the US, 50-year fixed mortgages have been proposed.  A 50-year mortage would increase the amount you could spend on a house for a given level of savings and income (at the cost of dramatically reducing its value as an investment). If the problem with housing were insufficient money being spent this might help, but that’s not the problem.  A change in financing that lets people bid more for houses doesn’t help.  Like abolishing avocado toast, extending mortgage terms is trying to solve the wrong problem.  Unlike abolishing avocado toast, it might have a real effect on the market.

 

 

 

* and because the basic arithmetic doesn’t make sense, but that’s a different post

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November 11, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Postponed Games

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Team Ratings for Postponed Games

I missed predicting the postponed game last week. The result of that game means some fairly small adjustments to the ratings for Toulon and Stade Rochelais. For completeness here is my prediction for the postponed game, following the updated predictions for Round 10.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.81 11.56 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.54 4.78 -0.20
Toulon 4.28 3.49 0.80
Stade Rochelais 3.66 1.22 2.40
Clermont 3.64 1.88 1.80
Section Paloise 2.96 2.21 0.80
Bayonne 1.64 1.48 0.20
Racing 92 1.28 1.88 -0.60
Montpellier 0.61 -0.21 0.80
Stade Francais 0.50 -2.17 2.70
Castres Olympique -1.22 0.59 -1.80
Lyon -1.86 -0.45 -1.40
USA Perpignan -6.09 -3.37 -2.70
Montauban -12.86 -10.00 -2.90

Performance So Far

So far there have been 62 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Montauban Nov 02 49 – 7 19.50 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 02 26 – 28 1.10 FALSE
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Nov 02 7 – 9 4.20 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Nov 02 27 – 23 16.50 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Nov 02 29 – 17 18.60 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Lyon Nov 02 54 – 21 11.20 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Nov 03 33 – 6 7.60 TRUE

Predictions for Postponed Games

Here are the predictions for Postponed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 09 Toulon 7.10
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Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.81 11.56 0.20
Toulon 4.88 3.49 1.40
Bordeaux Begles 4.54 4.78 -0.20
Clermont 3.64 1.88 1.80
Stade Rochelais 3.06 1.22 1.80
Section Paloise 2.96 2.21 0.80
Bayonne 1.64 1.48 0.20
Racing 92 1.28 1.88 -0.60
Montpellier 0.61 -0.21 0.80
Stade Francais 0.50 -2.17 2.70
Castres Olympique -1.22 0.59 -1.80
Lyon -1.86 -0.45 -1.40
USA Perpignan -6.09 -3.37 -2.70
Montauban -12.86 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 50 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 79.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Nov 09 39 – 14 7.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Nov 22 Bordeaux Begles 8.10
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Nov 23 Lyon 1.00
3 Montauban vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 23 Stade Toulousain -18.20
4 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne Nov 23 Racing 92 6.10
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Nov 23 Stade Rochelais 10.80
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Nov 23 Montpellier -0.20
7 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Nov 24 Stade Francais 2.10

 

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November 3, 2025

Top 14 Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.81 11.56 0.20
Bordeaux Begles 4.54 4.78 -0.20
Toulon 4.28 3.49 0.80
Stade Rochelais 3.66 1.22 2.40
Clermont 3.64 1.88 1.80
Section Paloise 2.96 2.21 0.80
Bayonne 1.64 1.48 0.20
Racing 92 1.28 1.88 -0.60
Montpellier 0.61 -0.21 0.80
Stade Francais 0.50 -2.17 2.70
Castres Olympique -1.22 0.59 -1.80
Lyon -1.86 -0.45 -1.40
USA Perpignan -6.09 -3.37 -2.70
Montauban -12.86 -10.00 -2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 63 matches played, 49 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Montauban Nov 02 49 – 7 19.50 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 02 26 – 28 1.10 FALSE
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Nov 02 7 – 9 4.20 FALSE
4 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Nov 02 27 – 23 16.50 TRUE
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Nov 02 29 – 17 18.60 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Lyon Nov 02 54 – 21 11.20 TRUE
7 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Nov 03 33 – 6 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Nov 22 Bordeaux Begles 8.10
2 Lyon vs. Clermont Nov 23 Lyon 1.00
3 Montauban vs. Stade Toulousain Nov 23 Stade Toulousain -18.20
4 Racing 92 vs. Bayonne Nov 23 Racing 92 6.10
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique Nov 23 Stade Rochelais 11.40
6 USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier Nov 23 Montpellier -0.20
7 Stade Francais vs. Toulon Nov 24 Stade Francais 2.70

 

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October 28, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

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Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 9.94 13.41 -3.50
Stormers 8.96 4.17 4.80
Glasgow 8.52 6.18 2.30
Bulls 7.36 8.86 -1.50
Munster 4.06 3.65 0.40
Edinburgh 4.03 2.67 1.40
Connacht -0.32 -1.39 1.10
Sharks -1.10 1.29 -2.40
Ulster -1.64 -3.24 1.60
Lions -1.91 -1.19 -0.70
Cardiff Rugby -2.22 -2.74 0.50
Ospreys -3.06 -2.15 -0.90
Benetton -3.33 -2.32 -1.00
Scarlets -3.49 -0.54 -3.00
Zebre -10.80 -11.02 0.20
Dragons -14.99 -15.66 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 38 matches played, 28 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Bulls Oct 25 21 – 12 7.90 TRUE
2 Lions vs. Ulster Oct 26 49 – 31 5.30 TRUE
3 Sharks vs. Scarlets Oct 26 29 – 19 9.20 TRUE
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Oct 26 16 – 31 -4.00 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Ospreys Oct 26 19 – 19 -11.30 FALSE
6 Leinster vs. Zebre Oct 26 50 – 26 28.80 TRUE
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Oct 26 20 – 19 0.70 TRUE
8 Munster vs. Connacht Oct 26 17 – 15 7.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dragons vs. Leinster Nov 29 Leinster -17.90
2 Ulster vs. Benetton Nov 29 Ulster 8.70
3 Bulls vs. Lions Nov 30 Bulls 11.30
4 Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 30 Cardiff Rugby -1.60
5 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Nov 30 Edinburgh 14.10
6 Munster vs. Stormers Nov 30 Munster 2.10
7 Connacht vs. Sharks Nov 30 Connacht 7.80
8 Scarlets vs. Glasgow Nov 30 Glasgow -5.00

 

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Top 14 Predictions for Round 9

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Team Ratings for Round 9

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 12.20 11.56 0.60
Bordeaux Begles 4.35 4.78 -0.40
Toulon 3.58 3.49 0.10
Section Paloise 3.41 2.21 1.20
Clermont 3.27 1.88 1.40
Stade Rochelais 3.02 1.22 1.80
Racing 92 1.93 1.88 0.00
Montpellier 0.98 -0.21 1.20
Bayonne 0.91 1.48 -0.60
Stade Francais 0.10 -2.17 2.30
Castres Olympique -1.04 0.59 -1.60
Lyon -1.16 -0.45 -0.70
USA Perpignan -6.55 -3.37 -3.20
Montauban -12.13 -10.00 -2.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 56 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Oct 26 41 – 12 8.60 TRUE
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Oct 26 63 – 14 8.50 TRUE
3 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 26 19 – 36 3.70 FALSE
4 Montauban vs. USA Perpignan Oct 26 29 – 22 0.10 TRUE
5 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Oct 26 15 – 10 5.00 TRUE
6 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Oct 26 35 – 12 4.40 TRUE
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Oct 26 59 – 24 13.70 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 9

Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Montauban Nov 02 Bayonne 19.50
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Nov 02 Castres Olympique 1.10
3 Montpellier vs. Clermont Nov 02 Montpellier 4.20
4 Section Paloise vs. USA Perpignan Nov 02 Section Paloise 16.50
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Racing 92 Nov 02 Stade Rochelais 7.60
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Stade Francais Nov 02 Stade Toulousain 18.60
7 Toulon vs. Lyon Nov 02 Toulon 11.20

 

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6

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Team Ratings for Round 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bath 12.22 10.30 1.90
Saracens 8.62 5.03 3.60
Sale Sharks 5.90 6.70 -0.80
Leicester Tigers 3.47 5.55 -2.10
Bristol 2.87 3.66 -0.80
Northampton Saints 0.85 -1.47 2.30
Exeter Chiefs 0.84 -4.58 5.40
Gloucester -1.28 4.13 -5.40
Harlequins -3.58 -3.02 -0.60
Newcastle Falcons -22.03 -18.45 -3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 25 matches played, 19 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Northampton Saints vs. Saracens Oct 25 43 – 31 -3.10 FALSE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Gloucester Oct 26 39 – 12 6.00 TRUE
3 Harlequins vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 26 52 – 14 23.20 TRUE
4 Bath vs. Bristol Oct 26 40 – 15 14.70 TRUE
5 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 26 36 – 35 5.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 6

Here are the predictions for Round 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Leicester Tigers Nov 29 Leicester Tigers -18.50
2 Sale Sharks vs. Exeter Chiefs Nov 29 Sale Sharks 12.10
3 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Nov 30 Gloucester 9.30
4 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Nov 30 Bristol 9.00
5 Saracens vs. Bath Dec 01 Saracens 3.40

 

October 21, 2025

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5

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Team Ratings for Week 5

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 10.47 13.41 -2.90
Glasgow 8.40 6.18 2.20
Stormers 8.29 4.17 4.10
Bulls 7.48 8.86 -1.40
Munster 4.67 3.65 1.00
Edinburgh 4.07 2.67 1.40
Ulster -0.90 -3.24 2.30
Connacht -0.94 -1.39 0.40
Sharks -1.19 1.29 -2.50
Cardiff Rugby -2.26 -2.74 0.50
Ospreys -2.39 -2.15 -0.20
Lions -2.65 -1.19 -1.50
Benetton -2.67 -2.32 -0.40
Scarlets -3.40 -0.54 -2.90
Zebre -11.33 -11.02 -0.30
Dragons -15.67 -15.66 -0.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 30 matches played, 21 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Connacht vs. Bulls Oct 18 27 – 28 -1.50 TRUE
2 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 18 17 – 24 -12.70 TRUE
3 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Oct 18 43 – 0 10.80 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Scarlets Oct 19 29 – 18 6.80 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Ulster Oct 19 26 – 34 8.50 FALSE
6 Leinster vs. Munster Oct 19 14 – 31 10.40 FALSE
7 Ospreys vs. Glasgow Oct 19 17 – 42 -1.40 TRUE
8 Zebre vs. Stormers Oct 19 13 – 31 -11.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 5

Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Bulls Oct 25 Glasgow 7.90
2 Lions vs. Ulster Oct 26 Lions 5.30
3 Sharks vs. Scarlets Oct 26 Sharks 9.20
4 Benetton vs. Stormers Oct 26 Stormers -4.00
5 Dragons vs. Ospreys Oct 26 Ospreys -11.30
6 Leinster vs. Zebre Oct 26 Leinster 28.80
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Edinburgh Oct 26 Cardiff Rugby 0.70
8 Munster vs. Connacht Oct 26 Munster 7.60

 

Top 14 Predictions for Round 8

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Team Ratings for Round 8

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 11.51 11.56 -0.10
Toulon 4.27 3.49 0.80
Bordeaux Begles 3.69 4.78 -1.10
Section Paloise 3.41 2.21 1.20
Stade Rochelais 2.34 1.22 1.10
Clermont 2.11 1.88 0.20
Racing 92 1.93 1.88 0.00
Montpellier 1.61 -0.21 1.80
Bayonne 1.58 1.48 0.10
Castres Olympique 0.12 0.59 -0.50
Lyon -0.48 -0.45 -0.00
Stade Francais -0.52 -2.17 1.70
USA Perpignan -6.13 -3.37 -2.80
Montauban -12.55 -10.00 -2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 49 matches played, 38 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bayonne vs. Clermont Oct 19 44 – 17 4.50 TRUE
2 Castres Olympique vs. Stade Francais Oct 19 29 – 24 7.40 TRUE
3 Montpellier vs. Lyon Oct 19 35 – 13 7.60 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain Oct 19 30 – 26 -2.40 FALSE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Montauban Oct 19 54 – 19 20.40 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Racing 92 Oct 19 45 – 21 7.70 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. Bordeaux Begles Oct 19 12 – 27 -2.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 8

Here are the predictions for Round 8. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Oct 26 Bordeaux Begles 8.60
2 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Oct 26 Clermont 8.50
3 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Oct 26 Lyon 3.70
4 Montauban vs. USA Perpignan Oct 26 Montauban 0.10
5 Racing 92 vs. Section Paloise Oct 26 Racing 92 5.00
6 Stade Francais vs. Montpellier Oct 26 Stade Francais 4.40
7 Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon Oct 26 Stade Toulousain 13.70

 

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