United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5
Team Ratings for Week 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
---|---|---|---|
Leinster | 13.47 | 12.09 | 1.40 |
Glasgow | 11.12 | 9.39 | 1.70 |
Bulls | 9.43 | 8.83 | 0.60 |
Lions | 7.72 | 6.73 | 1.00 |
Munster | 6.91 | 9.28 | -2.40 |
Stormers | 4.64 | 6.75 | -2.10 |
Edinburgh | 1.98 | 0.09 | 1.90 |
Ulster | 1.37 | 2.52 | -1.20 |
Cheetahs | 0.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
Connacht | -0.65 | -0.76 | 0.10 |
Benetton | -1.46 | 1.02 | -2.50 |
Ospreys | -3.50 | -2.51 | -1.00 |
Sharks | -4.54 | -2.94 | -1.60 |
Cardiff Rugby | -4.92 | -2.55 | -2.40 |
Southern Kings | -6.52 | -6.52 | 0.00 |
Scarlets | -8.62 | -10.65 | 2.00 |
Dragons | -12.79 | -15.41 | 2.60 |
Zebre | -14.43 | -16.17 | 1.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 30 matches played, 23 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Glasgow vs. Zebre | Oct 12 | 33 – 3 | 31.30 | TRUE |
2 | Benetton vs. Sharks | Oct 13 | 38 – 10 | 5.50 | TRUE |
3 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets | Oct 13 | 19 – 25 | 8.30 | FALSE |
4 | Edinburgh vs. Stormers | Oct 13 | 38 – 7 | -1.40 | FALSE |
5 | Leinster vs. Munster | Oct 13 | 26 – 12 | 7.70 | TRUE |
6 | Ospreys vs. Bulls | Oct 13 | 19 – 29 | -6.70 | TRUE |
7 | Ulster vs. Connacht | Oct 13 | 32 – 27 | 4.40 | TRUE |
8 | Dragons vs. Lions | Oct 13 | 19 – 23 | -16.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 5
Here are the predictions for Week 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Scarlets vs. Bulls | Oct 19 | Bulls | -12.50 |
2 | Ulster vs. Ospreys | Oct 19 | Ulster | 10.40 |
3 | Zebre vs. Lions | Oct 19 | Lions | -16.60 |
4 | Sharks vs. Glasgow | Oct 19 | Glasgow | -10.20 |
5 | Stormers vs. Munster | Oct 20 | Stormers | 3.20 |
6 | Edinburgh vs. Cardiff Rugby | Oct 20 | Edinburgh | 12.40 |
7 | Connacht vs. Leinster | Oct 20 | Leinster | -11.60 |
8 | Dragons vs. Benetton | Oct 20 | Benetton | -5.80 |
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