July 20, 2017

Currie Cup Predictions for Round 1

Team Ratings for Round 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Lions 7.41 7.41 0.00
Cheetahs 4.33 4.33 -0.00
Western Province 3.30 3.30 0.00
Blue Bulls 2.32 2.32 -0.00
Sharks 2.15 2.15 0.00
Pumas -10.63 -10.63 -0.00
Griquas -11.62 -11.62 0.00

 

Predictions for Round 1

Here are the predictions for Round 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cheetahs vs. Sharks Jul 21 Cheetahs 6.70
2 Griquas vs. Blue Bulls Jul 22 Blue Bulls -9.40
3 Pumas vs. Lions Jul 23 Lions -13.50

 

Avocado denominators

Time magazine’s website has had at least seven stories about avocado on toast since May. The most recent one says

Square, a tech company that helps businesses process credit card payments, crunched data from sellers around the U.S. and found that Americans are spending nearly $900,000 per month on crusty bread topped with mashed green fruit.

What’s impressive about that number is how unimpressive it is.  The US is a big place. Even if we only count millennials, there are 80 million of them, so we’re talking about an average of 1 cent each per month.

But it gets worse from there. The story talks about the 50-fold increase since 2014. That’s an increase in sales handled by Square, an expanding business. Neither Time nor Square seems to have made any attempt to look at sales from comparable businesses over time, which Square could have done easily.

The whole avocado-toast thing only makes sense as a synecdoche for an eating-out lifestyle, so accurate data about avocado on toast isn’t really going to be very helpful for anything important. Even so, it’s possible for innumerate presentations of inaccurate data to be less helpful.

July 19, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for the Qualifiers

Team Ratings for the Qualifiers

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.12 13.22 3.90
Lions 14.57 7.64 6.90
Crusaders 13.83 8.75 5.10
Highlanders 11.28 9.17 2.10
Chiefs 9.88 9.75 0.10
Brumbies 2.30 3.83 -1.50
Stormers 1.48 1.51 -0.00
Blues -0.22 -1.07 0.90
Sharks -0.26 0.42 -0.70
Waratahs -3.81 5.81 -9.60
Bulls -4.96 0.29 -5.20
Jaguares -5.03 -4.36 -0.70
Force -6.97 -9.45 2.50
Cheetahs -9.63 -7.36 -2.30
Reds -9.92 -10.28 0.40
Kings -12.08 -19.02 6.90
Rebels -15.29 -8.17 -7.10
Sunwolves -19.38 -17.76 -1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 135 matches played, 101 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Jul 14 40 – 17 25.50 TRUE
2 Rebels vs. Jaguares Jul 14 29 – 32 -6.70 TRUE
3 Kings vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 20 – 21 1.30 FALSE
4 Sunwolves vs. Blues Jul 15 48 – 21 -20.90 FALSE
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 15 28 – 10 10.70 TRUE
6 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jul 15 31 – 22 6.50 TRUE
7 Force vs. Waratahs Jul 15 40 – 11 -3.60 FALSE
8 Sharks vs. Lions Jul 15 10 – 27 -10.60 TRUE
9 Bulls vs. Stormers Jul 15 33 – 41 -2.20 TRUE

 

Predictions for the Qualifiers

Here are the predictions for the Qualifiers. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Brumbies vs. Hurricanes Jul 21 Hurricanes -10.80
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jul 22 Crusaders 6.10
3 Lions vs. Sharks Jul 22 Lions 18.30
4 Stormers vs. Chiefs Jul 22 Chiefs -4.40

 

NRL Predictions for Round 20

Team Ratings for Round 20

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.40 8.49 -1.10
Cowboys 6.45 6.90 -0.50
Broncos 3.58 4.36 -0.80
Panthers 2.97 6.08 -3.10
Sea Eagles 2.87 -2.98 5.80
Sharks 2.76 5.84 -3.10
Raiders 2.21 9.94 -7.70
Roosters 1.07 -1.17 2.20
Eels -0.41 -0.81 0.40
Rabbitohs -1.22 -1.82 0.60
Titans -1.60 -0.98 -0.60
Warriors -2.42 -6.02 3.60
Dragons -2.63 -7.74 5.10
Bulldogs -4.36 -1.34 -3.00
Wests Tigers -6.78 -3.89 -2.90
Knights -11.93 -16.94 5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 136 matches played, 81 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 14 22 – 34 0.60 FALSE
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 14 18 – 14 9.20 TRUE
3 Knights vs. Broncos Jul 15 22 – 34 -12.00 TRUE
4 Titans vs. Sharks Jul 15 30 – 10 -4.60 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 16 28 – 16 13.40 TRUE
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 16 10 – 23 -2.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 20

Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Bulldogs Jul 20 Broncos 11.40
2 Roosters vs. Knights Jul 21 Roosters 16.50
3 Sharks vs. Rabbitohs Jul 21 Sharks 7.50
4 Panthers vs. Titans Jul 22 Panthers 8.10
5 Raiders vs. Storm Jul 22 Storm -1.70
6 Cowboys vs. Warriors Jul 22 Cowboys 12.90
7 Dragons vs. Sea Eagles Jul 23 Sea Eagles -2.00
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Jul 23 Eels -2.90

 

July 17, 2017

Stat of the Week Competition: July 15 – 21 2017

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

  • Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday July 21 2017.
  • Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
  • The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of July 15 – 21 2017 inclusive.
  • Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

(more…)

July 12, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 17

Team Ratings for Round 17

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 16.96 13.22 3.70
Lions 14.18 7.64 6.50
Crusaders 13.98 8.75 5.20
Highlanders 11.43 9.17 2.30
Chiefs 9.45 9.75 -0.30
Brumbies 2.74 3.83 -1.10
Blues 2.65 -1.07 3.70
Stormers 1.14 1.51 -0.40
Sharks 0.12 0.42 -0.30
Waratahs -1.86 5.81 -7.70
Bulls -4.61 0.29 -4.90
Jaguares -4.81 -4.36 -0.50
Force -8.93 -9.45 0.50
Cheetahs -9.77 -7.36 -2.40
Reds -10.07 -10.28 0.20
Kings -11.94 -19.02 7.10
Rebels -15.51 -8.17 -7.30
Sunwolves -22.26 -17.76 -4.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Hurricanes vs. Chiefs Jun 09 14 – 17 12.90 FALSE
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Jul 07 16 – 15 -10.70 FALSE
3 Force vs. Rebels Jul 07 31 – 22 10.20 TRUE
4 Waratahs vs. Jaguares Jul 08 27 – 40 9.70 FALSE
5 Bulls vs. Kings Jul 08 30 – 31 12.40 FALSE
6 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Jul 08 52 – 15 26.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 17

Here are the predictions for Round 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Highlanders vs. Reds Jul 14 Highlanders 25.50
2 Rebels vs. Jaguares Jul 14 Jaguares -6.70
3 Kings vs. Cheetahs Jul 14 Kings 1.30
4 Sunwolves vs. Blues Jul 15 Blues -20.90
5 Chiefs vs. Brumbies Jul 15 Chiefs 10.70
6 Hurricanes vs. Crusaders Jul 15 Hurricanes 6.50
7 Force vs. Waratahs Jul 15 Waratahs -3.60
8 Sharks vs. Lions Jul 15 Lions -10.60
9 Bulls vs. Stormers Jul 15 Stormers -2.20

 

NRL Predictions for Round 19

Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 7.40 8.49 -1.10
Cowboys 5.61 6.90 -1.30
Sharks 4.64 5.84 -1.20
Broncos 3.58 4.36 -0.80
Sea Eagles 3.00 -2.98 6.00
Raiders 2.64 9.94 -7.30
Panthers 1.97 6.08 -4.10
Roosters 1.07 -1.17 2.20
Rabbitohs -0.38 -1.82 1.40
Eels -0.41 -0.81 0.40
Warriors -1.42 -6.02 4.60
Dragons -3.07 -7.74 4.70
Titans -3.49 -0.98 -2.50
Bulldogs -4.36 -1.34 -3.00
Wests Tigers -6.91 -3.89 -3.00
Knights -11.93 -16.94 5.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 130 matches played, 77 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 59.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Jul 07 14 – 12 5.60 TRUE
2 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jul 08 16 – 8 1.40 TRUE
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 08 6 – 22 16.20 FALSE
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 09 20 – 18 12.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Warriors vs. Panthers Jul 14 Warriors 0.60
2 Raiders vs. Dragons Jul 14 Raiders 9.20
3 Knights vs. Broncos Jul 15 Broncos -12.00
4 Titans vs. Sharks Jul 15 Sharks -4.60
5 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Jul 16 Sea Eagles 13.40
6 Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys Jul 16 Cowboys -2.50

 

July 10, 2017

Stat of the Week Competition: July 8 – 14 2017

Each week, we would like to invite readers of Stats Chat to submit nominations for our Stat of the Week competition and be in with the chance to win an iTunes voucher.

Here’s how it works:

  • Anyone may add a comment on this post to nominate their Stat of the Week candidate before midday Friday July 14 2017.
  • Statistics can be bad, exemplary or fascinating.
  • The statistic must be in the NZ media during the period of July 8 – 14 2017 inclusive.
  • Quote the statistic, when and where it was published and tell us why it should be our Stat of the Week.

Next Monday at midday we’ll announce the winner of this week’s Stat of the Week competition, and start a new one.

(more…)

July 4, 2017

Super 18 Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Hurricanes 17.92 13.22 4.70
Lions 14.18 7.64 6.50
Crusaders 13.98 8.75 5.20
Highlanders 11.43 9.17 2.30
Chiefs 8.49 9.75 -1.30
Brumbies 3.44 3.83 -0.40
Blues 2.65 -1.07 3.70
Stormers 0.48 1.51 -1.00
Sharks 0.12 0.42 -0.30
Waratahs -0.50 5.81 -6.30
Bulls -3.81 0.29 -4.10
Jaguares -6.17 -4.36 -1.80
Force -8.85 -9.45 0.60
Cheetahs -9.77 -7.36 -2.40
Reds -10.78 -10.28 -0.50
Kings -12.74 -19.02 6.30
Rebels -15.58 -8.17 -7.40
Sunwolves -21.60 -17.76 -3.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 120 matches played, 93 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Blues vs. Reds Jun 02 34 – 29 14.60 TRUE
2 Crusaders vs. Highlanders Jun 03 25 – 22 6.50 TRUE
3 Chiefs vs. Waratahs Jun 03 46 – 31 12.70 TRUE
4 Brumbies vs. Rebels Jun 03 32 – 3 21.60 TRUE
5 Force vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 12 – 34 -22.90 TRUE
6 Jaguares vs. Kings Jun 30 30 – 31 12.20 FALSE
7 Lions vs. Sunwolves Jul 01 94 – 7 33.30 TRUE
8 Cheetahs vs. Stormers Jul 01 34 – 40 -6.90 TRUE
9 Sharks vs. Bulls Jul 01 17 – 30 10.20 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
2 Reds vs. Brumbies Jul 07 Brumbies -10.70
3 Force vs. Rebels Jul 07 Force 10.20
4 Waratahs vs. Jaguares Jul 08 Waratahs 9.70
5 Bulls vs. Kings Jul 08 Bulls 12.40
6 Stormers vs. Sunwolves Jul 08 Stormers 26.10

 

NRL Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.

Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Storm 9.83 8.49 1.30
Cowboys 5.61 6.90 -1.30
Sharks 4.64 5.84 -1.20
Broncos 3.58 4.36 -0.80
Sea Eagles 3.54 -2.98 6.50
Raiders 2.64 9.94 -7.30
Panthers 1.43 6.08 -4.70
Roosters 1.40 -1.17 2.60
Rabbitohs -0.70 -1.82 1.10
Warriors -1.42 -6.02 4.60
Eels -2.85 -0.81 -2.00
Dragons -3.07 -7.74 4.70
Titans -3.49 -0.98 -2.50
Bulldogs -3.49 -1.34 -2.20
Wests Tigers -6.91 -3.89 -3.00
Knights -12.79 -16.94 4.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 126 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Eels vs. Bulldogs Jun 29 13 – 12 4.80 TRUE
2 Titan vs. Dragons Jun 30 20 – 10 1.70 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Storm Jun 30 12 – 42 2.10 FALSE
4 Roosters vs. Sharks Jul 01 12 – 44 5.90 FALSE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Warriors Jul 01 26 – 22 5.20 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Cowboys Jul 01 18 – 31 3.00 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Wests Tigers Jul 02 12 – 33 1.00 FALSE
8 Rabbitohs vs. Panthers Jul 02 42 – 14 -3.40 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Roosters vs. Rabbitohs Jul 07 Roosters 5.60
2 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Jul 08 Panthers 1.40
3 Storm vs. Eels Jul 08 Storm 16.20
4 Bulldogs vs. Knights Jul 09 Bulldogs 12.80